1. Efficient Qualitative and Quantitative Use of Knowledge-Based Systems in Financial Management

Project Acronym : EQUUS Title : Efficient Qualitative and Quantitative Use of Knowledge-Based Systems in Financial Management Objective : The area of application of the planned knowledge-based systems was financial portfolio management. This is not a new area for knowledge-based computing: it was identified early in the USA as a profitable area for expert system development. However successhas been limited. Clients' needs have not been correctly appreciated, and there have been shortcomings in the standard rule-based model for knowledge representation when applied to financial problems. EQUUS aimed to remedy this situation. Its objectives were to: -develop an expert system for portfolio management -provide the tools for acquiring knowledge and applying knowledge in the same area. In consequence, a major goal was to supplement standard tools and methodologies with facilities for mixed quantitative and qualitative reasoning and to organise the collected knowledge accordingly. General Information : The functional requirements for such financial system development were stated, and a generalised methodology for knowledge acquisition in the financial domain established. A survey of the French, American and British tools and applications was released.The requirement to reason qualitatively from time-dependent quantitative data was approached through a study of the fundamental issues involved in applying fuzzy logic. This has been sufficiently advanced to incorporate the results in the demonstrators.A generalised methodology for knowledge acquisition in the financial domain was established. Ten prototypes allowing portfolio design exist, and are part of a general conceptual frame, QUIDS (Equus Integration Decision System). The two main prototypes are: -IPDS at Citymax, written in OPS5: this is a portfolio design system allowing maintenance and including MPT (US Modern Portfolio Theory based on utility theory), characterising the investment risks and return to be taken. -FOAL2 at DATAID written in QSL/LISP: this is a prototype based on fuzzy sets and necessity/possibility theory. The system is written in Vax Lisp and QSL language and runs under VAX VMS. The role of FOAL2 is to build a portfolio by sorting and selectingstocks on the basis of a client interview and by using fuzzy logic. The project has also produced documents on expert systems, evaluation and metrication. These are relevant to other evaluation projects (numbers 857 (GRADIENT), 1257 (MUSE), 1570 (ESCA) and 2148 (VALID)). Exploitation One of the prototypes, the chartist advisor of RIADA, has been integrated with the main database of RIADA and produces daily recommendations. Other prototypes (Citymax and DATAID) are planned to be progressively exploited in the future. At the same time, a user handbook of procedures for the production of such systems has been produced. This includes measures of performance and cost estimates for the introduction of expert systems; this document will be published by UCL a methodology book on building KBS duplications. Project Status : Completed Start Date : 16-Mar-1987 End Date : 16-Jun-1990 Duration : 39 months Programme Acronym : ESPRIT 1 Subprogramme Area : ADVANCED INFORMATION PROCESSING Knowledge engineering Programme Type : 1st FWP (First Framework Programme)

Prime Contractor

Organisation : Citymax Ltd Address : 6 Laurence Pountney Hill Postcode : EC4R 0BL City : London Region: SOUTH EAST (UK) GREATER LONDON Country : UNITED KINGDOM

Other Contractors

Organisation Name : DATAID Org. Country : FRANCE

Organisation Name : University College London Organisation Type : Education Contact Person : MIDWINTER, J.E. Department : Department of Computer Science Address : 5 Gower Street City : London Region : SOUTH EAST (UK) GREATER LONDON Org. Country : UNITED KINGDOM Post Code : WC1E 6BT Telephone : +44-71-3880428 Fax : +44-71-3889307 URL : http://www.cs.ucl.ac.uk/staff/

Organisation Name : RIADA & CO Contact Person : ENRIGHT, BERNARD Address : GRAFTON STREET 28/29 City : DUBLIN 2 Region : Dublin Org. Country : IRELAND Post Code : X Telephone : +353-1-791411 Fax : +353-1-791430

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